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NÃO PERCA O SEU TEMPO COM O
PIG: LEIA O NEW YORK TIMES
Paulo Henrique Amorim
Máximas e Mínimas 1152
Em nenhuma democracia séria do mundo,
jornais conservadores, de baixa qualidade técnica
e até sensacionalistas, e uma única
rede de televisão têm a importância
que têm no Brasil. Eles se transformaram
num partido político – o PiG, Partido
da Imprensa Golpista.
“Ele (Serra) é
sem escrúpulo, passa por cima da mãe”.
De Ciro Gomes, numa sabatina na Folha
. Se você acha que o Brasil não
tem futuro.
. Que o Brasil tirou a Mega-Sena e só
por isso a economia vai bem.
. Que tudo o que tem de bom no Brasil se deve
ao Farol de Alexandria.
. Se você não perde a Miriam Leitão
na tevê aberta, no cabo, no jornal e na
radio.
. Que o Brasil deveria invadir a Bolívia
e o Paraguai.
. Se você acha que os colonistas do PiG
são uma cruza de Montaigne com William
Safire.
. Se você acha que o Daniel Dantas é
um gênio incompreendido.
. Que a Amazônia deve ser internacionalizada.
. Se você acha que a Petrobrás
deveria ser a Petrobrax, privatizada.
. Que sem o boom das commodities o Brasil seria
um Haiti.
. Que a promoção da Standard
& Poor’s e da Fitch foi imerecida
e resultará na maior desgraça
que já se abateu sobre os brasileiros.
. Se você morre de inveja de quem já
foi ao Shopping do Auriemo, que se separa da
Daslu pelo odor da Marginal.
. Que a elite branca é “melhor”
preparada.
. Que o “Bolsa Família”
é o “Bolsa Vagabundo”.
. Se você acha que o Brasil é
uma porcaria e não merece figurar num
inevitável Conselho de Segurança
da ONU ampliado.
. Que o Presidente Lula é um despreparado.
. Se você acha que as favelas deveriam
ser removidas ou incendiadas.
. Que o Capitão Nascimento merece uma
estátua.
. Que o Congresso não presta e deve
ser substituído pelo Supremo Tribunal
Federal.
. Que o Império americano é eterno,
como Roma, e o melhor é o Brasil se tornar
Porto Rico.
. Que o presidente eleito José Serra
é “um grande economista”.
. Se você acha tudo isso, definitivamente,
você não pode ler o New York Times.
. Não perca o seu tempo com o New York
Times, esse jornaleco que não chega aos
pés do PiG.
. Se, porém, você é um
herético, do contra, não leva
os tucanos – especialmente os de São
Paulo - e seus estafetas a sério, então,
leia a coluna desta segunda feira, dia 2, de
Roger Cohen, na edição on line
do New York Times:
June 2, 2008
OP-ED COLUMNIST
The World Is Upside Down
By ROGER COHEN
RIO DE JANEIRO
For a while the world was flat. Now it’s
upside down.
To understand it, invert your thinking. See
the developed world as depending on the developing
world, rather than the other way round. Understand
that two-thirds of global economic growth last
year came from emerging countries, whose economies
will expand about 6.7 percent in 2008, against
1.3 percent for the United States, Japan and
euro zone states.
The sharp rise in prices for energy, commodities,
metals and minerals produced mainly in the developing
world explains part of this shift. That has
created the balance of payments surpluses fueling
dollar-dripping sovereign wealth funds in the
gulf and East Asia. They amuse themselves picking
up a stake in BP here, a chunk of Morgan Stanley
there, and why not a sliver of Total.
We of the developed-world Paleolithic species
are fair game for the upstarts now, our predator
role exhausted. The U.S. and Europe may one
day need all the charity they can get.
To place this inversion in focus, it helps to
be in Brazil, where winter (so to speak) arrives
with the Northern Hemisphere summer, and economic
optimism, as exuberant as the vegetation, increases
at the same brisk clip as U.S. foreclosures.
Huge offshore oil finds, a sugarcane ethanol
boom, vast reserves of unused arable land, mineral
wealth and abundant fresh water contribute to
Brazilian buoyancy. But natural resources are
only part of the story. As in China and India,
an expanding internal market is bolstering growth.
So is increasing corporate sophistication and
global ambition.
At the annual National Forum, a gathering of
business leaders, I felt like a first-world
pipsqueak as leaders of the national energy
company Petrobras (bigger than BP, Shell and
Total) and Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, or C.V.R.D.
(the world’s second largest mining company),
reeled off head-turning statistics.
Petrobras, which has spearheaded Brazil’s
push to self-sufficiency from heavy dependence
on imported oil 30 years ago, will more than
double oil production to 4.2 million barrels
a day in 2015 from 1.9 million barrels today.
“With the latest discoveries, the South
Atlantic will become a huge oil producer,”
predicted Jose Sergio Gabrielli de Azvedo, its
chief executive.
Roger Agnelli of C.V.R.D. waved away the United
States (“It’s full of debt”)
to focus on the company’s ambitions in
Asia. It was imperative to be there, he said,
because that’s where growth, capital and
ambition are. China, he noted, will account
for 55 percent of iron ore consumption, 31.6
percent of nickel, and 42 percent of aluminum
by 2012. Case closed.
Like many other big emerging-market corporations,
C.V.R.D. has been on a buying spree. It’s
not just sovereign wealth funds that are acquiring
first-world companies these days. It’s
the new giants of the NAN (Newly Acquisitive
Nations).
Emerging-market mergers and acquisitions are
up 17 percent this year to $218 billion, while
for the rest of the world they’re down
43 percent to $991 billion, according to Thomson
Reuters.
The 2007 Unctad World Investment Report said
developing-world direct foreign investment totaled
$193 billion in 2006, compared with a 1990s
annual average of $54 billion. The U.S. 2006
figure was $216.6 billion.
C.V.R.D. bought Canada’s Inco, a nickel
miner, for $17 billion in 2006. It came close
to acquiring the Anglo-Swiss miner Xstrata for
$90 billion this year. Just last week, India’s
Vedanta Resources reached a $2.6 billion deal
to buy U.S. copper miner Asarco.
That deal is being challenged by Grupo Mexico,
creating a Latin-American-Asian fight for a
U.S. company.
If you have trouble getting your mind around
that, try standing on your head.
That’s also a good position from which
to view India’s Tata Motors agreeing to
buy Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford for $2.3
billion, or Tata Steel’s acquisition last
year of the Anglo-Dutch Corus Group steel company
for $12 billion.
Globalization is now a two-way street; in fact
it’s an Indian street with traffic weaving
in all directions.
“In an inverted world, not only have developing
economies become dominant forces in global exports
in the space of a few years, but their companies
are becoming major players in the global economy,
challenging the incumbents that dominated the
international scene in the 20th century,”
said Claudio Frischtak, a Brazilian economist
and consultant.
A shift in economic power is under way to which
the developed world has not yet adjusted. Of
course the G-8 and the permanent membership
of the U.N. Security Council need to be expanded
to reflect this change. The 21st century can’t
be handled with 20th-century institutions.
That’s obvious. Less obvious is how the
United States, which underwrites global security
at vast expense, begins to share this burden,
so that the new multi-polarity of wealth is
reflected in a multipolarity of security commitments.
Headstands are in order for the next U.S. president.
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